Image from US Open.
Tonight at the US Open, Novak Djokovic faces what could be his last opportunity to reach a Grand Slam final. Carlos Alcaraz is his semi-final opponent. The winner will play either Felix Auger-Aliassime or, much more likely, Jannik Sinner in the final.
In the Wimbledon semi-finals this year, Sinner became only the second player to defeat Djokovic five matches in a row. All five victories came on big stages: the Davis Cup and Australian Open semi-finals in 2023; the Shangai Masters final in 2024; the French Open and Wimbledon semi-finals this year.
As Patrick Mouratoglou (former coach of Serena Williams and Naomi Osaka) said before their Wimbledon match, Sinner has the same type of game as Djokovic but “is playing that game much better at the moment.”
Djokovic’s standard level in 2025 isn’t good enough against tennis’s new Big Two of Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz. He has to play his best.
Serving to stay in the first set at 3-5 of that Wimbledon match, Djokovic hit a 97mph serve – far too slow against Sinner unless immaculately placed – and Sinner hit a good return to go 15-0 up. Then Djokovic hit a 126mph serve and got on top of the rally, levelling to 15-15. The next point, the serve was too slow (100mph) with Sinner easily getting to the ball and hitting a return crosscourt finisher.
When Djokovic got both angle and a bit more pace, he was hitting aces, as at 15-40 in that game and at deuce.
In the second set, Djokovic won 0% – zero – of his 2nd serve points. He did, however, win 8 from 13 net points. Both stats suggested he should try to keep the points short, which of course he knew. This was clearly his plan in the third set. At 3-3 in the third, Djokovic served and volleyed for the second time that game, but by this point his movement was severely hampered. Djokovic had already given up on many points where usually you’d bet on miraculous recoveries when he’s behind in rallies.
Djokovic has hit high levels inconsistently over the past year and a half (although not the same heights as his various prime years – notably 2011, 2015 and even 2023). He can still play at a similar level during spells of matches, but to beat Alcaraz tonight, he will likely have to play his best match since triumphing against the Spaniard at the 2024 Olympics.
Alcaraz is Absurd
Nick Kyrgios, one of the few players who beat all three of Djokovic, Roger Federer, Rafa Nadal—tennis’s Big Three for about 15 years—said in July that Alcaraz and Sinner are tennis’s new Big Two.
Andy Murray was sometimes (most often by British observers) included in a Big Four. Murray did win three Slams, an amazing achievement in tennis’s toughest ever era. But other than 2016, an exceptional year in which he finished as No. 1, Murray was not quite at the level of the others.
Djokovic has pointed out that even he did not achieve his dominance until 23 years old onwards, and what Alcaraz has done by 22 is not “normal”.
Andre Agassi described Alcaraz’s game as “still so raw”. (This is a player who has won 5 Grand Slams, but hasn’t got close to reaching his potential.) “I hope he learns how to maximise, and we should enjoy watching him before he does, because it’s so much fun for the fans to watch how he plays the game,” said Agassi.
On BBC’s pre-match coverage of the Wimbledon final between Sinner and Alcaraz, John McEnroe said of Alcaraz:
“He’s one of the greatest three to four athletes I’ve ever seen on a tennis court movement-wise. He’s got an attitude that I think is one of the greatest attitudes. Roger Federer was the only guy close that actually – [Pat] Cashy and I – I think I can speak for Cash – we weren’t quite enjoying it as much while we were out there. It’s a really hard thing to do.
“Then you add onto the fact that he’s 22 years old and we’re comparing him to Nadal, Federer, Djokovic. Most complete player. THE most complete player I’ve ever seen. He can do absolutely everything. He’s one of the most skilled volleyers I ever see, and so that’s quite impressive in this day and age.”
Alcaraz is practically the only player who can beat Sinner. As Tumaini Carayol wrote after the Wimbledon final, before that match Sinner’s record against players other than Alcaraz since November 2023 read: two losses, 81 wins. But against Alcaraz, Sinner had lost four out of four.
After this year’s French Open final, possibly the greatest tennis match since the fading of the Big Three, Jim Courier described Alcaraz’s tennis as “celestial”.
Sinner’s tennis may be less inspiring, excellent though it is, and he was described by Agassi as Alcaraz’s “exact opposite”. Sinner is “constantly maximising” and never hits a ball “he doesn’t really need to”.
Alcaraz hits all kinds of shots he doesn’t need to. He’ll hit a 90mph clean winner down the line when a 75mph finisher would do. He’ll play a drop shot-lob combination when others would play it safe in a crosscourt rally.
Contrasting Characters
At one point during that final, Courier’s fellow commentator described Sinner as “furious in his own very mellow way.”
Alcaraz, in contrast, does not do many things in a mellow way. He’s one of the most expressive players on tour. Often, his body language is among the most positive. He’s known for his wide smiles, fist pumps, and celebrating special points with the crowd. But during the Wimbledon final, Alcaraz was unusually negative.
The variation in his play speaks to his personality; Alcaraz enjoys playing shots he doesn’t need to. He enjoys extending rallies when two shots could do the job. There’s more than a hint of Gael Monfils about Alcaraz. Aside from their joyful smiles, they’re both blessed athletically, with lightning speed and Djokovic-esque flexibility, and play with a rare creativity, unbound by coaches’ insistence on playing the percentages.
Tonight, if Alcaraz can play high percentage and find joy on court, he will likely win. But Djokovic’s Grand Slam chances have been dismissed countless times, and he’s proven doubters wrong. As he said after his quarter-final win on Wednesday, he likes the big matches.